June 2024 Market Update: Orangeville | Shelburne | Dufferin County

Step into the latest chapter of Dufferin County’s real estate saga: June 2024 update unfolds!

In a surprising turn, despite abundant inventory, several areas swung back into a Seller’s market.

Early in June, the Bank of Canada’s unprecedented 0.25% interest rate cut marked its first decrease in over 4 years. This announcement was a welcomed relief for homeowners and buyers alike, easing the challenge of home acquisition and maintenance. Though modest, it injected much-needed confidence into monthly affordability.

Looking at the market conditions overall, Orangeville remains in a strong seller’s market with 2.5 months of inventory. Dufferin County as a whole and Shelburne have dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 months of inventory, respectively, also shifting into seller’s markets thanks to increased sales.

Average Price

Surprisingly, average prices across the county saw an increase compared to May 2024. Orangeville rose by 1.7% to reach an average home price of $827,120, down 2.4% from 2023. Shelburne experienced an even more notable 7.2% increase to $834,539, up 5% from last year, while Dufferin County saw a significant 10.4% month-over-month rise, reaching a new average price of $951,582.

List - to -Sale Price Ratio

Dufferin County and Shelburne homes were selling at 99% of their list price for June, while Orangeville homes sold, on average, for 98%. This indicates that the average buyer was able to negotiate approximately 1-2% off of the list price during negotiations.

Days on Market

The period from the day a property hits the market until it’s marked as ‘SOLD’ is known as ‘Days on Market’ (DOM). Some selling strategies, such as canceling a stale listing and re-listing it, can skew these results, making it challenging to accurately pinpoint the average time it takes for a home to sell. It’s essential to keep this in mind.

Orangeville and Dufferin County experienced a notable increase in DOM, averaging 32-34 days to sell, which I believe accurately reflects the current market conditions.

In contrast, Shelburne saw a 3.3% decline, bringing the new average down to 29 days. However, based on personal experience, I don’t find this to be a true representation, as homes are often taking longer than a month to sell.

Interest Rates

As we all know by now, the Bank of Canada announced its first rate cut in over 4 years, bringing the new overnight prime rate to 6.95%.

The next rate announcement by the Bank of Canada is scheduled for July 25, 2024. Industry leaders appear divided on what the BOC will decide, given the recent rise in inflation to 2.90% in May from 2.70% in April 2024.

The CPI for June will be released on July 16, 2024.

Overall, the market appears to be robust and stable, contrary to common perceptions. We grew accustomed to low inventory and a rapid pace from 2021-2022, followed by a significant slowdown due to soaring interest rates, causing us to forget what a healthy market looks and feels like.

However, there’s a crucial missing piece in the equation: first-time homebuyers. Despite home prices decreasing since their peak in 2021, high interest rates still pose affordability challenges, keeping many FTHBs on the sidelines. With rates at 6.95%, FTHBs must qualify at a stress test rate of prime + 2%, totaling 8.95%. Given the average home price around $800,000, this financial equation often doesn’t add up for most.

Yet, the market remains resilient thanks to existing homeowners who waited out the pandemic and are now ready to upsize or downsize. Consequently, if you’re a homeowner considering a move, I strongly advise listing and selling your home before starting your house hunt.

For more information or to discuss buying or selling, CLICK HERE to schedule a quick call.

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