October 2023 Market Update


If you’re a homeowner in Dufferin County or planning to become one, I’m going to be giving a detailed update on the latest real estate market trends from October 2023 for Orangeville & Shelburne, Ontario, as well as Dufferin County as a whole, to give you the full picture. Now, make sure you stick around to the end of this video where I will reveal some hidden opportunities whether you’re thinking about buying or selling.

Map of Dufferin County, ON Canada

Months of Inventory

Let’s dive in by looking at what type of markets we are currently experiencing in the different areas of the county.  In October, Orangeville rose from 3.5 to 4.5 months of Inventory pushing us from a seller’s market into a balanced market, meaning that the supply of homes now matches the current demand from buyers.

Shelburne, for October, remained the same at 15 months of inventory continuing in a strong buyers market.  A buyer’s market occurs when there are 6 months or more of inventory, meaning there are far more homes for sale than there are active buyers looking in that area.
Now if we look at the county as a whole, we rose from 5.5 to 7.5 months of inventory.  This means overall in the county we shifted out of a balanced market and are now into a buyer’s market. Historically, Dufferin County tends to remain in a balanced market during these late fall months, but it is not surprising that the current interest rates have buyers waiting on the sidelines.

Average Price

Again, starting with Orangeville, the average price of the 22 homes sold is $816,291, keeping in mind that this is for all types of homes, from condo apartments to detached freeholds.  That average price is down 3% from last month but is up 4% when compared to October of 2022.  In Shelburne, the average price dropped 18% from last month to $705,917 which equals a 3% decrease vs. last year.  It’s also based on only 6 sales, which isn’t really enough to give an accurate representation. When looking more closely at the decreases seen in Orangeville and Shelburne, they appear to be because most of the homes that did sell were smaller, lower-priced homes to begin with and there is just an overall lack of home sales in higher brackets.

Aerial view of Dufferin County farm

Now if we look at all of Dufferin County, which now includes the rural townships with larger estates, country homes, and farms, we saw an increase in average price to $1,005,318 which is up 8% compared to September and 4% vs. last year. 

This shows that buyers with higher budgets are out there, but they want more bang for their buck and would rather spend $1M + to live outside the city in larger, more private properties.

Days on Market

One of the biggest questions we get is “How long will it take my home to sell?”.  On average in Orangeville, things are still moving relatively quickly at 17 days on market.  This is trending up 13% from September but down a whopping 48% from 2022.  Shelburne averaged 35 days on market, up 29% from last month but down 30% when compared to this time last year in 2022. 
Dufferin County remained pretty stable going from 27 days in September to an average of 28 days in October, and only a 3% increase from last year.

To be honest, these don’t paint an accurate picture of the average sale and are being skewed due to so many cancellations & re-lists. This means every time a listing is canceled and re-listed on MLS as new, due to price reductions or if the listing expires, it resets the days on market back to zero for that property.  A strategy often used by agents in slower markets making it hard to pinpoint what the true average is.

List-to-Sale Price Ratio

Moving along, the average list-to-sale price ratio for Orangeville was 98% in October. This means that, on average, buyers were able to negotiate 2% off of the asking price. This is down 1% compared to last month, but up 1% from last year indicating prices are still pretty stable.

Shelburne also saw a 98% list-to-sale price in October, a  3% decrease from last month but up 4% year-over-year.  And, as for Dufferin County, we are currently sitting at 97% which is a 1% decrease from September but a 3% increase vs. last year.

It’s important here to remember that this can be affected by different marketing strategies and pricing experiments, which is something Shelburne has been experiencing a lot of as agents try to find that sweet spot buyers are looking for. Listing UNDER market value would be one example, in hopes of bringing more buyers, and generating multiple offers.  Pricing too high due to high seller expectations or agents from outside the area can cause the average to decrease.

Current Mortgage Rates

Young family sitting together putting money in a piggy bank

Ok if you’re thinking about buying real estate shortly, mortgage rates range between 4.39% to 6.7% depending if you are going fixed or variable and whether you’re getting financing through a bank or an alternative lender.

So in summary when you look at October’s numbers, the increased interest rates still have buyers squeezing their wallets. Whether that be because they are priced out of the market with increased stress tests, resulting in less purchase power which explains why the majority of sales are under $850,000, or, they are upsizing in these more stable conditions but want to ensure they get the most from their budget.  And with pricing between Orangeville and Shelburne being so similar it kinda makes sense that sales would be slower in Shelburne.

The increased inventory levels are due to sellers who are either trying to get ahead of increasingly unaffordable payments or those who recognize that this is a good time to upsize or downsize.  This is a great market for anyone who has been looking to buy but has a home to sell as well. So remember those hidden opportunities I mentioned?  With talks of rate decreases coming, and fixed rates already on the decline, get into that new home before rates come back down and finding that forever home will come with increased competition and higher price tags.

The bottom line is that regardless of whether you’re buying or selling, every situation is unique and an in-depth analysis should be completed before you make any major decisions. If you want an accurate market analysis for your home or if you’re thinking of buying and want to know where the best opportunities are, you can either request a free no-obligation market evaluation or book a call with me to have a no-pressure conversation about your options. I’ll always just give you an honest analysis so that you’re informed to make the best decision that’s right for you, based on your situation.

If you feel that would be helpful you can request a call with me here. Otherwise, feel free to check out my other videos and I’ll be back next month with an updated report.

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