December 2023 Market Update

No Surprise There – December Sales Slow Across The Board.

In typical fashion, December numbers show a slowdown in sales and new inventory as we all shifted focus and prepared for the holidays. What was surprising, however, is that the average sale price increased in many areas compared to December 2022.

In this article, we will cover detailed market statistics for Dufferin County breaking down Orangeville and Shelburne, Ontario comparing month-over-month and year-over-year.

Plus, the next interest rate announcement date and new changes to Canadian real estate which came into effect on January 1, 2024.

Homes Sold in Orangeville Shelburne Caleon Southgate

Now Let's Break it Down...

Months of Inventory

In December, naturally, we saw a decrease in new inventory and sales. But despite these drastic drops, Months of Inventory remained virtually unchanged compared to last month. 

Starting with Dufferin County, we remain in a Seller’s market but are sitting right on the cusp of a Balanced market at 4.9 Months of Inventory.

Orangeville continues to remain in a strong Seller’s market at 2.8 Months since the lack of sales balanced out the lack of new inventory.

In Shelburne, we saw a slight decrease down to 9.3 but still remain well into a Buyer’s Market with the overflow of inventory.

Average Price

The average price can help us understand patterns in the real estate market and maybe even spot when it’s a good (or bad) time to buy or sell. But what’s important to remember is what you are comparing it to, and how many sales are being used to generate the averages.  In some cases, there simply aren’t enough sales to provide a true representation.

Starting with Dufferin County, the average home price (all types combined) rose 0.4% from November to $929,434 in December. This is great news, however, when we compare to the same time last year the average is down 6.21%.

In Orangeville, we saw an average price of $749,732 for December which we found to be quite low. But when breaking down the numbers it’s due to the majority of sales being older, smaller homes (1100-1500 sqft) and an increase in sales of attached housing. So it’s no surprise this is down 4.44% from last month but actually up 4.66% compared to December 2022. 

And, in Shelburne, numbers show a 9.44% increase bringing the average to $849,007.  While I do feel this would be a pretty accurate representation of Detached homes, I don’t believe it accurately reflects the market as a whole. However, one of the 6 homes sold for $1.45 M (an anomaly I’m still trying to wrap my head around), another around $1.1M while the other 5 were all under $800K which is why we are seeing such a big, misleading jump.

List - to - Sale Price Ratio

These ratios are an excellent way to get an understanding of how accurate listing prices are and how much buyers were able to negotiate, on average.

Dufferin County as a whole saw a 1% decrease down to an average of 95%, which makes sense given that the rural areas of Dufferin have very unique properties that can be difficult to price. While Orangeville & Shelburne both remain the same as last month at a steady 97%.

This indicates pricing is generally equal to market value while buyers were still able to negotiate up to 3% off the listing price. A great tool to use for buyers during negotiations when considering how much to offer.

Days on Market

It’s only natural that due to the weather and many different holidays during December, homes take longer to sell. Many even take their homes off the market temporarily to enjoy the holidays without having to worry about keeping everything spic and span.

Overall, Dufferin County experienced a 22% increase to an average of 44 days.

Orangeville remained the same, to our surprise, at an average of 31 days.

While Shelburne saw a decrease of 2.7% taking days on market down to 36.

Interest Rates

“2024 holds promise as a year of relief for Canadians.”

The resilience of inflation will play a pivotal role in shaping the financial landscape, with the Bank of Canada closely monitoring its trajectory back toward the targeted 2%, expected to be achieved by 2025.

Market expectations lean towards the possibility of the Bank of Canada pivoting to rate cuts later in the year. The specific timing and pace are still uncertain, but such news would undoubtedly be welcomed by new homebuyers and the estimated 60% of mortgage holders facing a mortgage renewal in the next three years.

Currently rates sit between 4.79% – 6.4% depending on whether you land A-side, B-side, and of course, higher if you have to go private.

Next Interest Rate Announcement is January 24, 2024

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